Kathmandu: The recent announcement of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s formal visit to China in early December, communicated through an informal two-party political mechanism rather than the formal government channels, has raised questions about Nepal’s diplomatic approach.
Instead of a formal statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs which Nepali Congress leader Arzu Rana Deuba leads, the announcement was shared through the secretariat of a recently formed joint political mechanism led by Prime Minister and Chair of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba.
A statement issued by Keshab Raj Joshi, secretary of the mechanism’s secretariat, confirmed the visit, stating that the trip, on the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang, would be coordinated by Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba under direction from the Prime Minister and NC president Deuba.
The mechanism comprises of eight members—four from each party—with key figures from both sides including CPN-UML’s Senior Vice-Chair Ishwor Pokharel, Vice-Chair and Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel, General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel, and Deputy General Secretary and Political Advisor to the Prime Minister Bishnu Rimal, as well as Nepali Congress leaders Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka, General Secretary Gagan Thapa, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak, and Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba.
The decision to use an informal, party-based mechanism rather than the formal government channel, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has sparked debate among political commentators.
The role and legitimacy of such informal mechanisms in Nepal have long been contested.
Political analyst Lokraj Baral, in a commentary published by Kantipur daily, claimed that the mechanism is a formality to make the people believe that the government is doing something. “What can such a mechanism do? The government must act.”
Question has been raised as to why the government chose this informal channel to announce a major diplomatic visit to Nepal’s northern neighbor and the world’s second largest economy, which has had quite an influence in Nepal in recent times. The use of the two-party mechanism has prompted speculation about political motivations and strategic considerations.
Some analysts suggest that the government’s decision to bypass formal government channels reflects a fear of backlash, particularly from New Delhi. Nepal’s diplomatic relations with its southern neighbor have been a sensitive issue, especially in light of Prime Minister Oli’s past tensions with Indian leadership.
Given these historical tensions, some believe that involving the Nepali Congress in the announcement may be an effort to project unity between the two largest political parties in the country.
By making it clear that Deuba and the Nepali Congress are part of the coordination process of China visit, the Prime Minister may be signaling to international forces, particularly India, that Nepal’s foreign policy on China is backed by a bipartisan consensus, thus sending a stronger message that Nepal’s political establishment is collectively strengthening ties with its northern neighbor.
A Nepali Congress insider highlighted this dynamic. It seems the government has predicted that the involvement of Deuba, who has historically maintained better relations with India and the US, helps mitigate any potential backlash from New Delhi, he told The DMN News. This may be a strategic message to show that Nepal’s two largest political forces are aligned on strengthening relations with China, despite the concerns that such a shift might provoke in India.
Prime Minister Oli’s relations with India have often been fraught. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet extended a formal invitation to Oli since his return to office three months ago.
Recently, Prime Minister Oli had reiterated that he was forced to quit the government in 2016 due to his stand against the blockade imposed by India and dubbed the signing of a trade and transit agreement with China ‘a historic milestone’.
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