In the seventies, the economic power of Nepal and China was somehow similar. But in the new millennia, China’s political, military, diplomatic, and economic eminence has grown astoundingly on the world stage, leaving Nepal far far behind. However, it was not an over-the-night achievement. Chinese people had to struggle for several decades with their hard work, dedication, and perseverance to solemnize today’s prosperity. India has also made impressive progress on growth and development over the last few decades. Despite having substantial natural resources, Nepal’s resource management could not result in an encouraging dividend for various reasons. This article briefly presents Nepal’s relations with China and India and discusses the prevalent situations of the same.
Nepal and China: Past and present
Let’s admit this. Nepal has not been able to maximize its trade with China even though we have had trade relations with China’s Tibet for more than 2000 years. Many historical documents testify that Nepal-China relations are age old. Chinese monk Manjushree, who traveled to Nepal, is said to have assisted in the settlement of Kathmandu valley. Similarly, monk Fa-Xian from the Jin Dynasty (266 CE-420 CE) visited Buddha’s birthplace Lumbini, and monk Xuanzang from the Tang Dynasty visited Lumbini in 633 CE. Tibetan King Songtsen Gampo in the seventh century married Nepali King Anshuverma‘s daughter Princess Bhrikuti. Nepali monk Buddhabhadra spent the rest of his life in China who is revered for serving the Chinese people by translating Buddhist scriptures from Sanskrit into Chinese and preaching Buddhism. The white pagoda constructed by Araniko is another testimony of our age-old cultural ties.
Coming down to the modern times, on 1 August 1955, a joint communiqué was signed between Nepal and China on five principles: mutual respect, non-aggression, non-interference, equality, and peaceful coexistence. The two sides have followed this principle while maintaining relations with each other. In the 1970s, when King Birendra proposed Nepal as a “zone of peace” India showed reluctance but China was the first to support it. In 1974 Khampa rebellion was crushed in Nepal. Nepal-China relations became much stronger after that. Much recently, an agreement on strategic partnership has been reached between Nepal and China. China’s Nepal policy has been driven by two basic objectives—strategic and economic. China appreciates and expects Nepal to continue supporting the One China Principle, and China supports the sovereignty and integrity of the territories of Nepal.
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal recently reiterated the ‘One China principle’. Nepal has maintained firm commitment to the One China policy, acknowledging that Hong Kong and Taiwan are integral parts of China, and Xinjiang and Tibet are internal matters of China. Additionally, Nepal has consistently assured China that it will not allow anti-China activities on its soil.
China appreciates and expects Nepal to continue its non-alignment neutral political stance. China does not unrealistically expect Nepal to be a Chinese “ally,” nor pursue any sort of unequal “special relationship” with Nepal, but fully respects Nepal’s unalienable rights of keeping neutrality and peace. China only wants that Nepal is not used by the West as a weapon against China and the China-Nepal relationship remains equal and mutually respectful. Maintaining regional stability is China’s prime concern. Regional stability can be achieved if no foreign powers try to meddle in the internal affairs of any country in her neighborhood. With the signing of the BRI framework in 2017 Nepal has looked forward to a smooth economic transformation with the help of China. We must reap the benefits of this project.
China views Nepal’s hydropower sector as a crucial link in its grand vision of connectivity and economic expansion. BRI cooperation in the energy sector has not yet been outlined. One reason that the investors from China are discouraged could be due to the Indian reluctance to import power generated from foreign investors, particularly Chinese investors.
Through strategic investments and infrastructure projects, China seeks to enhance cooperation in Nepal, fostering cross-border energy networks and trans-Himalaya trade and tourism promotion. The six important border points in operation for trade between Nepal and China—Kodari, Kerung, Yari-Purang (Humla), Olangchung Gola-Riwu, Kimathanka- Riwu and Nechung (Mustang)-Lizi—should be made more functional for better connectivity.
China does not want any undue advance carried out by any foreign powers from Nepal’s territory that is detrimental to its national security interest. As it has made it clear several times, China will not tolerate the ‘Free Tibet movement’ in Nepal in any form.
China’s mutually beneficial cooperation with its neighbors has witnessed vigorous development. The Chinese diplomatic gesture of signing the ‘Transit and Transportation Agreement’ during the hardship of the 2015 Indian blockade was another significant testimony of China’s eminence in our difficulty.
China’s soft power includes cultural diplomacy and multilateral diplomacy. China’s long-term goal is to face up to the perceived competition for soft power among major powers. In Nepal, the Chinese government has visibly done much in recent years to promote cultural exchanges. High-level interactions are frequent, and the bond of friendship is devoid of skepticism that ensures political mutual trust. The two countries understand and support each other on issues concerning their respective core interests (Hou Yang, 2022). The economic engagements serve Chinese strategic ends and help expand its influence in a region that has traditionally been considered India’s strategic backyard ( Erik, 2021).
China seeks to secure its strategic interests, expand its economic footholds, and maintain a regional balance of power by engaging with neighbors, Nepal included. Scholars argue that Chinese engagements in Nepal have increased over the years (Pathak, 2009). A new term ‘Chinese World Order” has been coined by John K Fairbank. He argues: “China’s influence is constrained by the countervailing influence of other major powers: Japan, the USA, Russia, and India. China itself now subscribes to the principle of non-intervention, which, though diluted, remains important to its foreign policy approach. China’s wealth gives it the ability to realize its domestic and foreign policy goals without resorting to military force (Fairbank, 1997).
China is a helpful friend for Nepal. Our strategic relationship with China can help us become prosperous.
Issues with India
Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on its website writes: ‘Nepal and India enjoy excellent bilateral ties. Founded on the age-old connection of history, culture, tradition, and religion, these relations are close, comprehensive, and multidimensional and are pronounced more in political, social, cultural, religious, and economic engagements with each other. To add a formal flavor to such historic relations, the two countries established diplomatic relations on 17 June 1947’.
This is true. India is Nepal’s prime development partner and has many concerns in Nepal. However, time and again, Indian behavior towards Nepal has been annoying. For example, in the Bhutanese Refugee issue, India freely allowed their exodus into Nepal but did not cooperate with many of the demands Nepal had sought. Indian dissatisfaction with Nepal’s decision to impose work permits on Indians living in Nepal and its government’s attempt to acquire Chinese weaponry in 1988 had ignited a diplomatic rage that resulted in an economic blockade.
Nepal suffered from a similar blockade after the new constitution was promulgated in 2015. There are several instances of Indian interventionism on trivial issues. India has occupied the Kalapani area since the sixties for security reasons but would not budge to resolve despite Nepal’s genuine claim with historical evidence. On the contrary, India released its updated political map in which the Kalapani area was included inside the Indian territory. Regarding our diplomatic protest and request to have a meaningful dialogue in resolving the issue, India has not yet responded positively to Nepal’s call. The Indian MEA statements regarding several such instances have a negative footprint on Nepal-India relations.
India’s unilateral decision to introduce the Agnipath Scheme in their recruitment process in the already existing mechanism due to the Tripartite agreement of 1947 that was signed between Nepal, India, and the United Kingdom has made it non-binding. India plans to import 10,000 megawatts of hydropower from Nepal over the next 10 years. The primary reason why India strives to have a firm influence over Nepal’s water resources is for obvious reasons. Nepal should meticulously securitize while dealing with our natural resources with foreign powers.
The prevalent open border situation and the migration have alarmed Nepal’s demographic pattern over the years and will bring various socio-economic and political issues in the future.
Nepal and India’s policy of free movement dates from 1950, and the open border makes it hard to know exactly how many Nepalis are working in India (and vice versa) at any given time. Many analysts in Nepal therefore suggest caution while dealing with India.
What Nepal should do
The US and India portray China as the common threat and similar narratives are rampant. Nepal must safeguard itself from such propaganda. In the sea change in relations between India and the United States, Nepal must be wary of their strategic partnership intended against China. Any foreign power interests in Nepal must be well evaluated through our National Security Strategy lens.
Nepal must pragmatically balance the competing objectives of India and China while advancing its internal goals and priorities. Nepal must reap the benefits from SAARC, SCO and BIMSTEC. Nepal should conduct vigorous engagements with friendly neighbors for its economic growth. Several Indian ventures are operating in Nepal in manufacturing, services (banking, insurance, dry port, education, and telecom), power sector, and tourism sectors. Nepal must work hard to bring various multinational investment companies and if possible with the collaboration of our national assets.
India and China’s paramount concern in Nepal is related to security and stability. It is important to recognize the strategic interests of our neighbors. There should be no security-related irritants regarding our geopolitical setting. India is twenty-three and China is sixty-eight times bigger in size. The perception of “Nepal is small” needs to be changed. We should take the examples of Singapore or Israel.
Nepal’s geo-political voyage forward is not devoid of challenges. Our quest for development must be achieved with tact and diplomacy. Our robust visibility must be seen in international peace and security. We should adopt continuity which will be important to secure our long-term security interests. Relationships with all friendly countries and adopting contextual change to maximize benefits that may contribute to our political economy will be the need of the day.
Suresh Sharma is a Brigadier General (Retired) of Nepal Army. He writes on strategic affairs.
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