Kathmandu: Donald Trump evokes both fear and loathing and fascination and fondness among his supporters and detractors. His opponents fear that he might ruin America’s standing in the world, might persecute and prosecute the immigrants, who actually built the foundation of America and continue to add bricks to the house of global power. They give him the bad epithets they can think of: Unpredictable, whimsical, irrational with no sense of understanding of global geopolitics. His supporters see him as the beacon of hope to revive American glory, American dream and American supremacy at home and abroad. While there is a gloom among his opponents that Trump won the presidency with the largest margin, despite the early predictions that he would lose or at least be neck-to-neck with Kamala Harris, there is a jubilation among supporters that they have found a feisty, fierce, assertive and strongman as their ruler.
The most feared man by his opponents and the most admired man by his supporters is back in the White House for the second non-consecutive term–probably the rarest achievement for Trump as he secured the non-consecutive second term breaking 132 years of record in American history.
There are predictions and conjectures regarding what his second presidency means for the world. But in relation to Nepal-US relations, two important events occurred which created alarming discourse in Nepali media during his first term.
First was this concept of the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), which Alice G Wells who was then the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs of the US Department of State, described as “Trump administration’s focus on ensuring security, good governance and economic success of the Indo-Pacific region.” In an interview with me in August, 2018 she said that the strategy is also about being focused on “learning lessons of the South China Sea and ensuring that in the Indian Ocean region we have free and open trade and maritime access.”
Nepali press quickly defined the IPS as a reaction to China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) of which Nepal had already become a signatory. A loud ruckus followed in Nepal after the visit of Pradeep Gyawali, who was then the foreign minister of Nepal, to the US on the invitation of his American counterpart Mike Pompeo in December, 2018–the first high-level exchange between the US and Nepal after 17 years.
It particularly raised eyebrows in Kathmandu, when the discussion between Gyawali and Pompeo regarding “Nepal’s central role in a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific” was (mis)reported by Nepali press as Gyawali signing the Indo-Pacific Strategy, or he acceding to make Nepal part of this strategy, which was largely seen as the US strategy to counterbalance China. Later when the American officials themselves linked IPS with the MCC Compact, it generated so much skepticism in Nepal that $ 500 million grant was stuck in limbo for a long time. All this happened during the first presidency of Donald Trump.
So what does his second presidency mean for Nepal, Nepal-US relations and Nepali diaspora in the US? Are there issues we really need to be cautious about with the ‘strongest’ man in the White House? I approached four learned individuals who, for a long time, have been closely watching, following, researching and writing about Nepal’s foreign affairs and diplomacy. Here is what they have got to say:
‘Indo-Pacific region may not receive as much importance and focus’
“The re-election of Donald Trump after four years has important lessons for political parties globally, that they should never take voters for granted. Four years ago, when Trump exited the White House, he was described by the media as the most unpopular president in the history of the United States. Today he managed a landslide victory with near total control in both the House of Representatives as well as the Senate. This shows how quickly public sentiments can change in electoral politics. In Trump’s case, US economy’s near stagnation since COVID crisis, and the domestic impacts of the war in Ukraine and Gaza may have played in his favor and against his opponent Kamala Harris, who is also the current Vice President. This should resonate with Nepal’s ruling political parties, who are increasingly coming under pressure from new political forces looking to mobilize on anti-incumbency sentiments among the young voters.
If you look at the first term of Trump’s presidency, he had adopted ‘America first’ policy, and was less inclined to spend US resources on managing external conflicts and tackling global issues. In a way, his first term was marked by a global disengagement, whether it was from Paris climate agreement or from other global commitments on human rights and democracy. There is a possibility his incoming administration will once again zoom out of this region to a certain degree. Given his electoral promise, to end the war in Ukraine and Gaza, the Indo-Pacific region may not receive the importance and focus it did under the Biden administration. In any case, US and China are already on a path to de-escalating tensions in this region; and given India’s diplomatic tensions with Canada and the US over Shikh separatism, chances are that the US will not increase strategic engagements in this region in the near future.
Trump’s re-election may not have a major impact on Nepal-US relations either, which will remain stable. But, like his last presidency, there will be very little appetite for engaging with and focusing on small developing states like Nepal. The only concerning factor is, his earlier tenure saw increased incidents of attacks and hate crimes against the minorities and immigrants of Asian origin. There is a sizable Nepali diaspora in the US, including in the key republican strongholds like Texas, who may be concerned about the possibility of such incidents repeating during his next tenure. But, this is only a speculation at this point.”
Anurag Acharya is a political analyst and the Director at Kathmandu-based think-tank Policy Entrepreneurs Inc.
‘Basic tenets of the America’s foreign policy vis-à-vis Nepal will remain the same’
“The way there was no major shift in America’s Nepal policy when Donald Trump took over in 2016, and when Joe Biden succeeded Trump in 2020, there will be no fundamental change in America’s Nepal policy after Trump’s presidency for the second time. Basic tenets of the America’s foreign policy vis-à-vis Nepal will remain the same. America does not have the past record of interfering in internal politics of Nepal. We can say that it will not happen in near future.
Having said that, we should always keep in mind that America’s Nepal policy has always been related to China in one way or the other. China is our next-door neighbor in the north and Chinese influence in Nepal is increasing in recent times, about which the US is obviously not pleased. Trump has vowed to deal with Russia and China aggressively. In this respect, American watch on Nepal in relation to China will likely increase even more, for Nepal is a strategic point for the Western powers, particularly the US, to watch China. Nepal needs to be watchful about this Western gaze.
Another thing concerning Nepal will be the situation of Nepalis who entered the US illegally through the routes of Mexico. A number of Nepalis from Rukum and Dang districts in Nepal have reportedly entered the US as illegal immigrants. And the president-elect is known for strong rhetoric against the illegal immigrants. Therefore, the possibility is that some Nepalis living and working in the US illegally could be deported. Or they could face really difficult situations out there and they may need help.”
Baburam Bishwakarma is the author of Bhurajnitiko Bhar (Burden of Geopolitics).
‘World will watch how Trump will end wars in Ukraine and Middle East’
“Donald Trump’s return to the White House will not directly impact Nepal-US relations. Nepal-US relation has a long history of its own and I do not think that a change of guard at the White House will change this long history of friendship between the two counties.
There has not been a visible shift of Washington’s policy with Kathmandu and I do not believe that such a shift will occur during his presidency in 2024. My first hunch is that the Nepal-US relations will see no change during Trump’s second term. But how Trump deals with China is surely going to have ramifications and impacts in Kathmandu. If he takes more stringent policies on China, such as raising tariffs on Chinese goods or strengthening alliance to escalate confrontation, China might also come up with measures to counter the US policies, in which Nepal will probably be caught in a great geopolitical dilemma. Nepal has historically been neutral and this position of neutrality could suffer a setback if the US and China pressure Nepal to choose sides. Even in that worst-case scenario, Nepal should refrain from choosing sides and stay neutral and non-aligned.
How early Trump will be able to end wars in Ukraine and Middle East will determine how the world will judge him. Many people think Trump will deal harshly with the immigrants but I think he will be more liberal towards immigrants than during his previous term because politicians create one rhetoric while outside power but they have to deal with the situation more responsibly when they are in power.”
Gopal Khanal is the author of the book Bhurajniti (Geopolitics).
‘There may be a hard push against China and more focus on Indo-Pacific narrative’
“A lot of buzz was created in the months that led to the elections, when Donald Trump was once again selected as the Republican candidate, which was a telling choice in itself. He has now won with a considerable margin, following two assassination attempts, and winning key swing states—the results going against many expert predictions and polls. His party has reclaimed its majority in the Senate as well, and the American courts now look more Trump friendly than it did during his first run. Following the elections, the conservatives are in power once more.
During his first term, Trump made some foreign policy choices that affected many, including Nepal: Moving out of climate agreements, issuing massive cuts or discontinuing family-planning programs and taking a hard line on immigration. Reduction in foreign aid, predictably, has been a concern that has been associated with Trump 2.0. So, how these issues play out in his second term would be anyone’s guess, but a new President signals newer opportunities and challenges for states around the globe. A reassessment of how American interests could define Nepal’s policy options in the evolving space, and an attempt to move away from reactionary policies could prove beneficial. There has been a lack of clarity even with something like the MCC in the past, and developing long-term strategies when comprehending and dealing with great power interests is important.
Broadly, the impact of a Trump Presidency on the existing geopolitical fault-lines in and around South Asia could be a point that many will seek to revisit and redefine. When coming to Nepal or other relatively smaller powers in the sub-continent, how the US moves forward with its strategic engagements with India and China will be crucial. It is highly probable that there will be a policy of continuity as many have predicted throughout the Presidential run, with a hard push against China and a particular focus on the Indo-Pacific narrative.
For the time being, however, the Ukraine issue, and the conflict in the Middle East will probably remain as the immediate concerns for the Trump administration.”
Shweta Karki is a Research Associate with the Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs (AIDIA).
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