Most countries have finally realized the challenges posed by climate change to national, regional and global security. The justification for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize for 2004 to Wangari Maathai and for 2007 to Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the reflection of global security concerns.
Although these realizations have not been converted to pragmatic policies, a general consensus and awareness point towards prioritizing this human induced and natural phenomena in the present turbulent world. However, opinions differ whether climate change as such should be linked to national security or should be considered as another challenge to living standards and livelihood. These opinions are based on the traditional perception and understanding of national security, which focused on territorial security and the use of the military by those relevant communities that have not understood the concept of national security which has shifted in the present era. This shift puts more emphasis on the issues based aspects of human security which would include food security.
A simplistic description of national security would encompass safeguarding and protecting national interests and issues from external, internal and other threats in which human security is the common denominator. The major component of the “other threats” is the instability caused by climatic events. However, a deeper insight of national interests and national security will unveil that security risks posed by climatic events is not only instability but transcends to other spheres of security.
National security is the sum total of efforts to secure national interests and issues. Identifying these factors and relating them to climate change will highlight the gravity of the threat. Although the priority of interests differ from state to state, there are four thematic groupings that will generally describe the national interests and issues of all states. They are physical security, economic prosperity, preservation of values and norms internally, and promotion of values and norms externally. From empirical findings and observations of various climatic events, all these attributes are affected by climate change. The impact on the first two attributes are visible and constitute a mixture between certainty and uncertainty in terms of events and timeline. The impact on the other two attributes is insidious. The mixture of certainty and uncertainty and the insidious nature of the impacts of climate change necessitates grappling with the problem immediately but with strategies and policies suitable for a long lasting and continuous endeavor as part of the overall national security strategy.
Furthermore, the developed countries and growing economic powers, responsible more for human induced climate changes, have the necessary system to mitigate the threats and are worried mainly about the migration of displaced persons that would pose challenges for security. It is the poor developing countries like Nepal, who are minimally responsible for human induced climate change, that bear the brunt of the problem in terms of security. Moreover, Nepal’s geographical location between two world’s largest population and industrial states is a factor that could also accelerate the fallout of human induced climatic events in the country. It is imperative that countries like Nepal formulate security strategies for climate change to have a fighting chance to deal with shocks from climate change.
The national security strategy of the developing world in relation to climate change should focus primarily on the following aspects: a) The impact of climatic events and the ensuing threats to all aspects of security, b) The possibility of exacerbating the existing security vulnerabilities—internal or external—or conflict and c) The threat to the capacity and the functioning capabilities of the state and the national security community (relevant government civilian sectors, military/ law enforcement agencies/institutes/INGOs/ NGOs etc).
As part of the developing global community, Nepal has made general efforts to face the challenges posed by climate change. The country is accredited as the pioneer in mobilizing the instrument of national power, the military, to counter the existential threat to forests and wildlife which help the ecosystem in mitigating adverse effects of climate change from the early seventies. This concept of using the military for ecosystem protection was also floated by the UN to protect the Gorillas in Congo as “Green Helmets” in contrast to the “Blue Helmets” , a designation of Peacekeeping Forces. Although the proposal did not materialize because of other conflict related priorities, para-military forces with robust lethal capabilities are used mostly in Africa to protect the ecosystem and endangered species of flora and fauna, underscoring its importance.
Nepal has not formulated policies related to impending security threats posed by climate change at the national security level. It is imperative that Nepal and other developing countries take stock of the seriousness of the threat to have a fighting chance to deal with the imaginative or probable apocalyptical shocks of the future.
Climatic events and security problems
The major effects on security due to climate change will be the scarcity of resources, mainly food, the problems associated with migration, displacement (environmental refugees), the loss of human lives, and the loss of properties and habitat which would threaten the ecological and social systems. These effects would continue to increase for several decades and some damages like land and species loss cannot be reversed .The major impact of these climatic events is already being felt globally and global climate change is one of the most politically visible aspects of environmental concerns. These events have been growing steadily mainly due to the population explosion which has accelerated growth in industrial emissions, dependency on fossil fuel , the draining of wetlands and groundwater, deforestation, and the overuse of grasslands and savannas. The greenhouse effect from these necessary ventures to provide different amenities has profound effects on climate change.
Most environmentalists feel that the earth will not be able to sustain the UN projected population of ten billion by 2050. However, the earth’s climate changed in the past because of various natural phenomena but now human activities have caused new and sudden changes. The management and control of these human activities may hopefully disproof such doomsday predictions. Moreover, the effects of climate change vary from region to region and some regions may even benefit. For example, Siberia may benefit from global warming with more land mass becoming accessible with the melting of the snow. Likewise, certain areas in Africa especially around the Sahara will benefit from increased grasslands due to the changed patterns in precipitation. These are positive effects on the outset but it could also ferment security problems.
The negative consequences of climate change are likely to affect the economy, the physical security, and the quality of life of the present and future generations especially in countries like Nepal. With climate change, the precipitation pattern has also changed .This usually non-linear pattern has led to more floods and also droughts. The stress from this climatic event is being compounded by pollution, increasing resource extraction, population growth and non-sustainable management practices. The most likely negative consequences of climate change that pose challenges to national security of Nepal are the following.
First, human lives and habitat loss will occur in river areas due to flooding from heavy precipitation, unsustainable development, glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and resource extraction. Landslides in the hills and mountain areas will also have the same effects. Second, food security could be threatened by the change of climate and the subsequent loss of arable lands. Third, as individual species shift in response to changes in climate, it may lead to a loss of biological diversity and threaten the ability of ecosystems to provide purified air and usable water. Fourth, human health will be adversely affected especially by heat waves and other diseases. The spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria and non-vector-borne diseases like cholera will likely increase and spread as conditions for their survival change. For example, dengue is relatively a new health hazard in Kathmandu and mosquitoes still buzz in the middle of November.
The loss of human lives and property is the most adverse effect of disasters attributed to climate change. Ten year data for the period 2012 to 2022 collected from open sources in Nepal showed that 651 people were killed, 114 were injured and 430 went missing in flood related incidents. The amount of loss of land and property was not recorded. Likewise, 1198 people died, 625 were injured, and 283 were missing in landslides. The fate of the missing in both events could not be traced from the sources. Similarly, 705 people were killed and 1011 were injured from lightning strikes. The intensity of lightning strikes could increase in the future as scientific data reveal that a 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature will increase lightning activities by 12 percent. The casualty figures indicate a manageable threat compared to other conflicts and incidents but the situation could worsen with dire consequences. These incidents where human lives suffer may further fuel other vulnerabilities related to security.
Exacerbating security vulnerabilities
According to economists a rise in local temperature of half a Celsius is linked with a ten to twenty percent increase in the risk of deadly violence. Most researchers conclude that the connection between the effects of climate change and conflict is not direct. Rather these effects help to spin off security threatening factors like ethnic tension, poverty, migration, and weak social and governmental institutions that make conflict more likely. It could produce social changes, leading to the fragmentation of states or in contrast to a more authoritarian hardening of state. The migration of the mass population displaced by climatic events is one of the critical aspects. Around the world, especially in Africa and the Middle East, such migration is increasing the risk of violent conflict by discrediting central governments and boosting the appeal of non-state armed groups or other actors. A research paper by Tarek Ghani and Robert Malley on climate change stoking conflict cites an example of Northern Nigeria as a textbook case of conflict fueled by climate change.
From the 1970s the region has faced frequent droughts as a result of climate change, and the Sahara has steadily advanced southward into Nigeria causing the desertification of an estimated 351,000 hectares of land annually diminishing pastures and farmlands. This has led to frequent clashes between farmers of the south and herders who have migrated to the south in search of better pasturelands. Both these communities have mobilized armed groups for protection. This has added a further security problem for the Nigerian Government which is involved in battling terrorist groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa. These terrorist numbers are also growing because of the increase in disgruntled elements from the impact of climate change in the region. The above examples illustrate the challenges posed by internal displacement. The consequences of cross-border migration are far outreaching.
The World Bank estimates that there will be more than 140 million internal climate migrants across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. The impact will be the steepest in the tropical zone but other nations in the subtropical and elsewhere will face the strain especially from cross-border migration. This influx of newcomers will face economic, social and other discriminations which could fuel deadly violence.
If migration is one of the fallouts of climate change that affects security then food insecurity is another factor. For example, in north-east Syria, a severe drought lasted from 2006 to 2011. Seventy five percent of the farmers lost their crops and herders lost about 85 percent of their herds. This led to the influx of hundreds of thousands of the rural population displaced by drought into cities which were already facing a crisis of food insecurity. This could be one of the causes of the 2011 uprisings in Syria besides the main cause of political repression .The Syrian food insecurity and violent political crisis is also linked to the connection between the severe drought in Eastern China in 2011, the global shortage of wheat and the doubling of wheat prices in the global market. The consequences of shortages and price hike impacted mostly Egypt and the other neighboring Arab countries. One of the rallying cries of discontentment in the Egyptian and subsequent other Arab countries was the demand for bread. This linkage between the drought in China and the Arab Springs highlights the global consequences of climatic events. The Arab Springs will always be an example of how climate change can exacerbate underlying problems.
According to economists a rise in local temperature of half a Celsius is linked with a ten to twenty percent increase in the risk of deadly violence. Most researchers conclude that climate change effects help to spin off security threatening factors.
The consequences of climate change have also increased tensions between countries which could blow into a full scale war or a war of coercion. These disputes mainly arise from water scarcity and the use of river resources. At times upper riparian states have misused their favorable geographical location without considering the consequences for the lower riparian state. It has also been used as coercive diplomacy. For example, in 1990 Turkey threatened to restrict water flow to Syria to force it to withdraw support to Kurdish rebels operating in Southern Turkey. In addition, the Jordan, the Ganges, the Nile, the Rio Grande and even the Mekong have been the center of dozens of international or regional disputes. In Central Asia, rising temperatures have inflamed transboundary water disputes among Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The dispute between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile is a simmering dispute which could blow into a full scale war. The utilization of river sources and the flow of water is also being used as part of the geopolitical rivalry to garnish support from relevant global institutions.
Although war is unlikely at the moment from water disputes, this could change from shocks related to droughts and rapid decline of water flow causing water scarcity in the basins. It could also be affected from shocks related to massive floods from unprecedented precipitation which could cause huge loss of lives and properties.
Nepal should care
In the context of Nepal, the exacerbations of security challenges from climate change also need to be viewed from existing vulnerabilities, and the impact of climate change like migration, food security and water related incidents. The existing fault lines in relation to the security environment is mainly caused by political instability of the transitory period, social, religious, and ethnic awareness, governance, economic factors and unresolved issues fueled by different expectations in the changed political context. In addition, a study on demographic risks of conflict have identified certain stress factors that predict probable conflict risk nations. In this study Nepal has been assessed with very high levels of demographic risk of civil conflict. The stress factors identified are youth bulge, urban population growth, cropland availability, fresh water availability and working age adult death. Among the stress factors, high youth bulge (more than 45 percent of the population), rapid urban population growth (more than five percent per year), and less cropland availability (0.11 hectare per person) categorizes Nepal in the high-risk zone. The impact of climate change could further exacerbate these stress factors.
The recent floods in Kathmandu Valley and all over the country is an indication of what the future holds. Internally, the resilient population forgave and forgot the inadequacies of the state. However, this resiliency could be eroded by other factors and shocks related to climate change. Climate change effects on precipitation, drought and GLOF have a direct impact on the flow of water. The resulting sudden floods or water scarcity has the potential of igniting internal and interstate conflict. As an upper riparian state, Nepal will have to tread carefully to prevent such shocks.
It is uncertain what the impact of climate change will be in the next decade or so. In such a situation, development of scenarios will help in advance preparation .In the past migration in Nepal was from the North to the South for a better life. In the future, there could be temporary or permanent migration from the South to North including cross-border to escape massive floods. These probable scenarios need to be imagined for planning purposes.
To ensure that the national security community can function reasonably, security hazard mapping has to be done to pre-place necessary infrastructures to face the impacts and to respond timely in order to prevent conflicts. This community has to be equipped and organized to face the challenges of climate change. The national security objectives must focus on sustainable development, resilience and synergy of all relevant sectors.
Climate change should be related to national security because of the impending threat to national interests and issues. As traditional security measures have shifted to include human security and other issues related to human security, this phenomena needs to be studied from all angles to have a fighting chance.
The impact of climate change and its fallouts will pose challenges to the national security of weak developing states. This will mainly evolve from exacerbation of existing vulnerabilities such as socioeconomic and political tensions. Necessary precautions must be in place to prevent acceleration of such security challenges.
As it is uncertain how climate change will develop in the future, it mandates a synergy of all sectors to anticipate, prepare and lay foundations to create climate resilience.
Dilip Rayamajhi is General (Retired) of Nepal Army. The above article is from the paper presented by him at the opening ceremony of Conservation Alliance Nepal (CAN) in Kathmandu recently.
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