PARIS, July 25, 2025 (AFP): France’s President Emmanuel Macron hopes that his country formally recognising a Palestinian state in September will encourage other countries to follow suit, according to analysts. International envoys are set to discuss a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict early next week in New York, before a further summit co-hosted by France ahead of the UN General Assembly in September.
Why now?
Macron’s announcement on Thursday came as international alarm grew about the plight of the more than two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, where Israel’s war against the Hamas militant group has triggered a dire humanitarian crisis and warnings of mass starvation. “The sense of urgency may have driven the president to move forward alone,” France’s former ambassador to Israel Gerard Araud told the France Inter broadcaster. Besides the humanitarian crisis and “the shocking declarations of certain Israeli ministers” on the fate they wish for all Gazans, Macron may also have been influenced by the political climate in France, said David Khalfa of the Jean Jaures Foundation. The war has triggered tensions in France, which is home to the largest Muslim community in the European Union, as well as the biggest Jewish population outside Israel and the United States.
What’s the plan?
France has long advocated for the so-called “two-state solution” for a Palestinian state to live in peace side-by-side with an Israeli one. Macron’s original idea was for France and other countries to recognise a Palestinian state at the same time as other nations — including Gulf heavyweight Saudi Arabia — normalised ties with Israel. As that proposal did not appear to gain traction, Macron made his announcement in the hope of spurring others to do likewise in the run-up to September’s UN General Assembly, said analyst Amelie Ferey. “The idea is to have a little over a month to potentially rally other countries to make a larger announcement in New York,” said Ferey, an analyst at the French Institute of International Relations. “The United Kingdom and Canada could perhaps follow suit,” she added. – Will it work? – Canada, France and Britain were among 25 countries on Monday to say the Gaza war “must end now”, arguing that the suffering of civilians had “reached new depths”. Mujtaba Rahman, the Europe director of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was under pressure from his Labour party to act. “He wants to move in concert with other countries and use recognition as a card in negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza,” he said. “But the timing is awkward” as US President Donald Trump arrives in Scotland on Friday evening, he added. “Starmer will be reluctant to upset him when there’s still things to be done on the UK-US trade deal.”
Why team up with Riyadh?
As France has no leverage to end the current Gaza war, “the idea in Paris is to let the United States impose a ceasefire, and for Paris to then be an important actor afterwards, along with the Saudis,” said Ferey. Camille Lons, an expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations, said France and Saudi Arabia were working on a post-ceasefire roadmap. This would include proposals for “the isolation and disarmament of Hamas, Palestinian elections in 2026, a new legal framework for political parties” and “the prospect of having a technocratic government”, she said. Other options on the table could include a UN peacekeeping mission, including personnel from neighbouring Egypt, she said. “The goal is to garner support from countries in the region for the sidelining of Hamas, including Qatar,” an ally of the Palestinian Islamist group, she added.
Is it realistic?
But “this is all quite detached from reality”, warned Lons. For Ferey, “the Israeli government’s goal is for there to be no Palestinian state.” After almost 22 months of war in Gaza, sparked by an unprecedented attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, the blockaded Palestinian territory has been largely ravaged by bombardment. And Israel’s far-right government is pushing for the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. Many Israelis now live in what would become a Palestinian state. Excluding Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem and its 200,000 Jewish residents, the occupied West Bank is home to around 500,000 Israelis in settlements considered illegal under international law. Three million Palestinians also live in the West Bank. Khalfa added that Saudi Arabia had no intention to normalise its ties with Israel for as long as Prime Minister Netanyahu — who critics accuse of prolonging the Gaza war to stay in office — remains in power.
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